Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
